Hole-in-One Statistics
The odds are most often stated as 1 in 12,750 of an amateur making a hole-in-one. A PGA Tour pro’s chances are much better at 1 in 3,756.
The United States Golf Register, the nation's official historic registry of hole-in-ones, estimates that the odds of hitting a hole in one are anywhere between one in 20,000 and one in 33,000. They state that those odds are guesstimates based on estimated rounds played and estimated hole-in-ones achieved.
Golf Digest is a publication that has provided "acer odds" since the 1950s, and in the year 2000 hired Francis Scheid, Ph.D., the retired chairman of the math department at Boston University, to calculate the odds using the latest and best information available.
The odds Scheid came up with were lower than some others cite. The Golf Digest study provided many great nuggets of information, even breaking the odds down by quality of play:
- Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1
- Low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1
- Average player making an ace: 12,000 to 1
The odds of making a hole-in-one vary somewhat, depending on the source and the numbers used for calculating the odds. One problem is that nobody knows the true number of aces made every year. There are numerous organizations that track holes-in-one, but not every ace that is made is reported. And, as one might suspect, not every ace that is reported was actually made!
Interesting statistics are available at www.holeinone.com. Golfers are asked to register their hole-in-one shots at this site and information is updated with regularity. According to this website, which sells hole-in-one golf insurance, the average hole-in-one golfer is age 44, has a handicap of 13, has played golf 16 years, hit his hole-in-one on Friday on Hole 8, just over 150 ft. yardage, using a 7 Iron.
